Page 93 - 《客語及少數族群語言政策》附錄_少數語言法律

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The assumptions that form the basis of the trajectory

2017–21

Language transmission in families: it is envisaged that the scale of the small
increase seen in the transmission rate between 2001 and 2011 will continue up to 2021.

Education: it is envisaged that the current pattern in terms of the percentage of learners in Welsh-
medium education, and the linguistic outcomes of learners in English-medium education, will remain
fairly constant.

2021–31

Language transmission in families: it is predicted that there will be a gradual but
conservative increase in the transmission rate.
Education: it is envisaged that the percentage of learners in
Welsh-medium education will increase gradually to 30 per cent by 2031. In addition, as a new
Welsh-language curriculum is introduced, we can expect the Welsh language skills of learners
already in the education system to improve gradually over this period.

For the first time in 2021–31 it will be possible to include the number of individuals who will
acquire the Welsh language as adults – based on the assumption that anyone who registers on a
beginners course from 2021 onwards will be additional speakers, who did not declare ability in
Welsh in the 2021 Census. Following the 2021 Census the assumption is that there will be 2,000
additional Welsh speakers every year through the Welsh for Adults sector.

2031–50

Language transmission in families: with more able to speak Welsh as a result of
changes in the education system which will have been introduced, and more using the
language more often as a result of changes outlined in this strategy, we can assume that the
rate of transmission will increase at a quicker rate than the previous decade.

Education: at the start of this period the first cohort who will have completed the new
Welsh-language curriculum will be 16 years of age. It is envisaged that the percentage of
learners in Welsh-medium education will increase gradually to 40 per cent by 2050.

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